21/6/2013: McKinsey Economic conditions Survey for H2 2013

Couple of interesting charts from the McKinsey Survey on global economic conditions (see full set of results here: http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Economic_Studies/Economic_Conditions_Snapshot_June_2013_McKinsey_Global_Survey_results?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1306)

So the percentage of those who are saying the global economy is performing substantially better at the end of Q2 2013 is 36%, which is down on 43% in Q1 2013, signalling deterioration in the conditions. Percent of those who see any improvement in the global economy is down from 79% to 75% q/q. In terms of expectations forward:

Things are not going all too well in expectations 6mo forward either. 41% of all respondents are upbeat in expecting an improvement in global growth of H2 2013. Now, keep in mind, most of the official forecasts factor in significant uplifts in economic conditions in H2 2013 to deliver on annual targets set for 2013 at the end of 2012. Let's take a look at regions where H2 expectations were the most optimistic on the official side: 49% Eurozone executives expect things to improve, Asia-Pacific (especially China) 38% and North America 32%. Hmmm... nowhere over 50%. Sample biases are probably working toward reporting firms having more robust expectations, as the survey covers larger companies, with bigger investment pipelines, usually consistent with upside to expectations.

For their own countries:

Better vs Same/Worse percentages:

• Asia-Pacific: 42% vs 59% in Q2 2012, against 38% vs 61% in Q1 2012. Own-country conditions confirm a 'no expansion' expectation in H2 2013
• Developing markets: 35% vs 64% in Q2 against 47% vs 53% in Q1. Own-country conditions confirm a 'no expansion' expectation in H2 2013
• Eurozone: 32% vs 68% in Q2 against 34% vs 66% in Q1. Own-country conditions confirm a 'no expansion' expectation in H2 2013
• India: 45% vs 55% in Q2 against 60% vs 40% in Q1. Own-country conditions confirm a 'no expansion' expectation in H2 2013
• North America: 54% vs 46% in Q2 against 43% vs 57% in Q1. Own-country conditions confirm a 'expansion' expectation in H2 2013

So of all regions, with exception of North America, own-executives signal no gains in growth in Q3-Q4 that is assumed ex ante in the official forecasts... time to go 'hmmmm...'

8/5/2013: Blackrock Institute Survey: N. America and W. Europe, May 2013

Just as I published April update from Blackrock Investment Institute Economic Cycle surveys, here comes May one for North America and Western Europe:

 Now, note change in Ireland's position compared to April:

May summary:

And conclusions (italics are mine):
"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a large shift on the outlook for global growth over the next 12 months – although a net proportion of respondents remains positive, this is now a figure of 41%, compared with a net 71% last month. [In other words, things are turning gloomier for global growth outlook]

With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remains low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as whole is in mid-cycle expansion. [In other words, current growth rates are not expected to rise much as would have been consistent with early-cycle expansion]

In Europe, the view continues to be more disparate, with a generally stronger northern Europe contrasted by continuing weakness in Eurozone as a whole. Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain in particular are described in a recessionary state, with the consensus view remaining in this phase at the 6 month horizon in each case."

7/5/2013: Blackrock Institute: April 2013 Global Economic Conditions - 1

A number of updates from the Blackrock Investment Institute Economic Cycle surveys for April 2013. Here are core charts.

Note of caution: some of the countries coverage in responses is thin, so data should be treated as only indicative. And the surveys are based on opinion of external experts, not Blackrock internal views.

Global outlook: 

"...a positive outlook on global growth, with a net 71% of 127 economists expecting the global economy will get stronger over the next year, (2% higher from the March report), based on North America and Western Europe panel."

For the EMEA panel, "Respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 57% of 64 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – however this is large downward shift from the net 74% figure last month."

Asia Pacific panel: "The global growth outlook remains positive, with a net of 71% of participants expecting a stronger global economy over the next 12 months; however this is a large step down from the net 84% figure in last month’s report."

Latin American panel: "The global growth outlook remains positive, with a net 47% of 49 participants expecting a stronger global economy over the next 12 months; however this is a large step down from the net 62% in last month’s report."

North America and Western Europe:

"With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remains low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as whole is in mid-cycle expansion. 

In Europe, the view continues to be more disparate, with the UK and Eurozone as a whole described in a recessionary state. With caveat that the depth of country coverage varies significantly, the consensus view remains recessionary at the 6 month horizon for France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Belgium."

Note: Ireland results are based on very 'thin' data. 

More regions to follow in the next post.