24/6/2013: Anglo 2008 Annual Report is out. Call your broker, presto!

All going swimmingly... nothing to look at here... move on folks...

http://www.ibrc.ie/About_us/Financial_information/Archived_reports/Annual_Report_2008.pdf
H/T to @KarlWhelan

Oh, yes, do fill your boots with them shares...

A pearl:
"Following the introduction of the Government guarantee on 30 September 2008 the Bank experienced growth in retail deposits and access to other funding markets gradually improved. However, the reputational damage to the Bank resulting from a number of recent disclosures together with  adverse ratings actions have significantly weakened the Bank’s competitive funding position at a time when global markets continue to deteriorate and overall sentiment is negative."

Thus, clearly, barring some bad publicity and bad-bad-bad-n-worse Ratings Agencies intransigence, the bank would have been just fine, thank you...

And as per future, a gem:
"We are determined as part of our long term strategy to rebuild trust and confidence. A key priority of the new Board is to ensure we regain our position in the corporate, wholesale and debt capital markets and over time enhance the quality of funding, building on our diversified international platforms. ...The Bank’s ambition is to expand its retail franchise by targeting new and existing markets with competitively priced transparent products."

The Happy Times, they are coming back...

Obviously, there is no one to blame, but bad PR and bad-bad-bad-n-worse Ratings Agencies:
"I continue to be impressed by the tremendously loyal and professional staff in all areas of the Bank who deserve great credit for their dedication and commitment. Like all stakeholders, staff members across the Group have been deeply impacted and disappointed by recent events. They share the Board’s determination to restore confidence and trust in the Bank. The Board has great faith in the ability and strength of our people and they will play a critical role in ensuring the future viability of the Bank."

In other words, neither the staff, nor the Board had any idea of these bad things that have happened... it is, therefore, 'carry on across all decks' moment... But just in case you don't get this tingling sensation of excitement for the future from above, here it is in full glory:
"...a comprehensive business plan is being developed which will ensure the Bank’s long term viability.

...We will look at evolving from our existing structure to a broader more diversified business bank. The Bank’s customer service ethos and ability to provide effective and efficient service will help us meet the needs of sole traders, SMEs and larger businesses.

The Board is resolute in its determination to ensure that the Bank emerges from its current situation as a strong and viable institution and one that stakeholders feel proud of."

QED.

NB: Judging by objectives set out above, the Board and the senior management of the bank have by now failed in achieving the goals set out by themselves for themselves back in 2008-2009. Anyone to be held responsible?.. other than bad PR and bad-bad-bad-n-worse Ratings Agencies?..

NB2: Karl's reaction - and I am in agreement with him on it:

24/6/2013: Ifo Business Climate Survey for Germany: June 2013

German economy continues to grow, per latest Ifo Business Climate Survey for June 2013:

Basically, all three core indicators are above the water (>100), with

• Business Climate reading at 105.9, up on 105.7 in May and 105.1 in June 2012. 
• Business Situation reading slipped slightly to 109.4 in June from 110.0 in May and is down on 113.8 recorded in June 2012.
• Business Expectations forward are actually relatively soft at 102.5 in June, up on sluggish 101.6 a month ago and up on contractionary 97.1 in June 2012.
• Dynamics wise, Climate and Expectations readings in June were ahead of their 12mo average through May 2013, but Situation reading is basically flat. On 6mo average through May comparative, all indices are ahead of the average in June, save Climate which is flat.

Of four core subsectors, however, only Manufacturing is above water on expectations side. 

Net: strong performance, given prevailing conditions in the global and euro area economies, but no massive fireworks.

23/6/2013: Sindo & Indo: "'Bondholders are f***ing us up the arse' – Anglo"

With slow drip of a freshly leaking faucet, we are getting more and more granularity on the events surrounding Anglo collapse and the events leading up to the Guarantee. Here's the latest instalment:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/bondholders-are-fing-us-up-the-arse-anglo-29365626.html

It is impossible to assume that this information, in pretty much the same words, was not conveyed to the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance before the issuance of the Guarantee. Which, of confirmed, would imply wilful act on their behalf in securing the payouts to the bondholders against all information available.

It is also virtually impossible to imagine, given this information, that the IL&P did not know well in advance of the fated 'deposits'-'loans' swap of late September 2008 that its funding arrangements with Anglo were high risk and not exactly kosher. Which implies that the Irish Fin Reg also knew the same. If the Fin Reg did not know this, its lack of awareness would signify an absolute level of incompetence that would be staggering even by the pretty high bars for incompetence set during Bertie Era.

In short, the two material bits in the article linked above are... well... staggering in their importance.

Updated: more on the same from 
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/inside-anglo-the-secret-recordings-29366837.html 
now down on tapes and making the case for accusing Anglo senior staff of knowingly manipulating the bank relationship with the CBofI/FinReg!


So while Bondholders were 'f***ing up Anglo', Anglo was f***ing up the entire financial system of Ireland with Ireland's financial system cheerful approval. The only ones who got f***ed up in the end were... Irish taxpayers. Happy times!


Updated: ZeroHedge on the same: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-24/anglo-irish-picked-bailout-number-out-my-arse-force-shared-taxpayer-sacrifice

And Anglo 2008 accounts have been released: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2462013-anglo-2008-annual-report-is-out.html

23/6/2013: On Dealing with Mortgages Arrears: Adverts v Process

A reply to @cbolgerr regarding the issue of contacting your bank when experiencing financial pressure in relation to mortgages:

In simple term (omitting some considerations), prior to the crisis people were mis-sold mortgages by the banks. Many mortgages were mis-sold on the basis of poor risk pricing by the banks - the job that the banks are paid to do. There was so much mis-selling that the problem of unsustainable mortgages is now structural.

People who mis-sold them these mortgages are still in the banks and are now the same people working on 'resolving' the problems. There were no involuntary layoffs of banking staff and there was no clearing of the banks lending officers or risk management staff on a systemic basis to match the problems in the lending markets. Hence, these staff members are still there. And accepting that they have no new lending to do, these are now the staff working on resolving the mortgages problems. As such, they have neither ability, nor credibility, nor incentives, nor compassion to do anything to repair the damage they have done.

In this environment, and provided the information and power asymmetries awarded to the banks by the Government & Regulator at the expense of mortgagees, the only thing that mortgagees should do is, simultaneously:
1) continue contributing to servicing their mortgages to the extent feasible,
2) prepare as much relevant financial information as possible in order to be able to file FSS,
3) identify an independent, properly regulated and knowledgeable/experienced representation for their case,
4) treat any engagement with the bank as potentially hostile and detrimental to them.

Their first step should be to seek independent advice and representation in the process. Unfortunately, the PIP system put forward by the state is itself at risk of being biased in favour of the banks. Still, it is better than following through on the banks advertising and contacting them before securing independent representation.

There are very few practitioners who have any relevant experience in dealing with the banks. And fewer still willing to help with advice before securing large payments from the homeowners. Care must be given to how the banks and the PIP system are approached.

Key issue, however, is that any mortgage holder under stress should continue engaging with servicing the loan to establish 'good will'. The banks are not required to establish any 'good will' toward borrowers, so the system in inherently unfair and asymmetric, but that is the reality of the fundamentally unjust legal framework established by the government and, for now - until challenged and changed - it has to be obeyed. 

22/6/2013: Weekend Reading Links: Part 3 of 3

This is the third and the last post of my regular weekly feature of the Weekend Reading Links On Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics (see the first post here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2162013-weekend-reading-links-part-1.html and the second one here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2262013-weekend-reading-links-part-2-of.html).

Just awesome, tireless in its brilliance and time-invested poignance, the encounter that took decades to shape and seconds to execute. If it were a performance, it qualifies for an Oscar : http://zengarage.com.au/2013/03/marina-abramovic-and-ulay/  h/t to @sherqui for reminding us about it. One question, though, how on earth could have followed Ulay to that chair?!.

Chile's Pezo von Ellrichshausen Architectshas finished Solo Pezo property - part of the Solo Houses project in Matarraña, south of Barcelona: http://www.solo-houses.com/en/solohouses/page/houses/solo-pezo

Solo Pezo is a concrete structure lifted to the landscape's natural ceiling of tree-tops on a monolithic square platform. Views and light are maximized. There is a deep pool in the roofless central space as a visual tension point between sky and earth. Good slidshow of images is here: http://www.wallpaper.com/architecture/the-first-of-12-solo-houses-is-completed-in-spain/6578#82798

As a lecturer myself, I know that students are not only canvases for us to shape (actually, they are not that at all, but the traditional teacher-student nexus implies transmission of value to the recipient of it, hence the hierarchical implicit structure) but they are also a source of inspiration. Here's a sample - a MICA retrospective:

http://www.mica.edu/Browse_Art/2012_Commencement_Exhibition.html?page=1

Brilliant works across the space. Enjoy!

Moscow Art Fair 2013 is coming up http://www.art-moscow.ru/en in September and, unless plans change, I will miss it this year (Irish trade mission is not being planned for that time, so I will not have an excuse to travel...) Here are some pics from 2011 show http://www.art-moscow.ru/2274.html. I love this one from 2008:

And more links from 2011 show http://www.itsliquid.com/art-moscow-2011.html. 2012 show images: http://www.art-moscow.ru/2512.html gotta love the irony:

And on these two humorous/sarcastic notes, have a fabulous weekend.

22/6/2013: Weekend Reading Links: Part 2 of 3

The second post (of three) of my regular weekly feature of the Weekend Reading Links On Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics (see the first post here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/2162013-weekend-reading-links-part-1.html):

Some interesting long-exposure photos: http://likes.com/misc/amazing-longexposure-pics-of-star-trails?v=eyJjbGlja19pZCI6IDExNzI1NDE3MDMsICJwb3N0X2lkIjogMjUxMTQ1OTZ9 These remind me of the dynamics of Hurst's spin paintings series and a circular geometry with fractal qualities of Frantisek Kupka.


Some stunning architecture next:

http://www.designboom.com/architecture/tatiana-bilbao-studio-visit-interview/
That 'gabriel orozco house', roca blanca, mexico, 2008 project evokes Casa Malaparte. my favourite house in all of the world... well, one of the most favourite ones, because it has to compete with Neutra(s) and Mies Van Der Rohe(s) and so on...

Same forceful linear projection into the landscape, same blending into the physical geometry of the landscape and same play on contrast of height and angularity:

Where science meets art: Images of Cosmographic Maps Chart Galaxies and Superclusters in Local Universe
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/06/cosmography-maps/?cid=co8792474 via @wiredscience and @adamspacemann
I love the term 'local universe'...  Awesome maps show you galaxies and cosmic clusters... and wonkishly clinical 'flow' map... of the 'local universe'

Back on Earth, 'local universes' are moving, again...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130617104614.htm
Just as G8 announced bringing closer (via trade) North America and Europe, so in geology the process of driving Europe closer to the USofA et al is on... so non-economic quote of the day is "This break-up and reformation of supercontinents has happened at least three times, over more than four billion years, on Earth. The Iberian subduction will gradually pull Iberia towards the United States over approximately 220 million years." I dare say, those visas one day will be done with and then Dublin Airport US immigration clearance desks will have to be abandoned.


http://www.urbannexusinitiative.com/ is hosting an exhibition on Liffey: A boulevard of rooms + corridors: http://www.urbannexusinitiative.com/May-2013(2689947).htm This really is worth much more than just few web pages, so let's hope the folks at Urban Nexus get their act together and produce a killer site with images, interaction etc...
As Joseph Brodsky noted:
"What do you love most of all?
Rivers and streets - the long things of life"
Liffey is a tortured river, defaced by modern and contemporary ugliness and decay in places, as well as by spots of rather banal old architecture too, yet highlighted by moments of beauty and by more recent city efforts to bring it to life. It is alive and it is stunningly beautiful as a counterpoint to and reaffirmation of what we, humans, have wrecked around it: good and bad. It is one of the three core natural attractors that create a physically visual pull of Dublin (the other two being Wicklow mountains and the Dublin Bay, the latter being equally defaced by our inability to stop abusing the commons of nature).


The third post of links for this weekend (I warned you I have many this time around) is coming up, so stay tuned.

21/6/2013: Weekend Reading Links: Part 1

The first post of my regular weekly feature of the Weekend Reading Links On Arts, Sciences and Zero Economics:


Let's hit science bit (ok, rather technology) first: IBM's famed Watson is getting into a museum: http://www.computerhistory.org/atchm/ibms-watson-jeopardy-computer-comes-to-chm/
I remember being at IBM when Watson played the Jeopardy rounds. It was amazing. I also recall working on Watson's capabilities and deployment in finance for deep risk pricing. As my memory tells me, the code for Watson's brilliance was written by a team from Ireland.


I know, I avoid dealing with economics here, so treat this as not a note about how art is a fantastic example of high value-added exports, but as a story about globalization of art's language and acquisition and exchange of knowledge: http://www.theartnewspaper.com/articles/Royal-Academy-in-talks-with-potential-Moscow-partner/29952


Art meets design: http://wordlesstech.com/2013/05/24/jaguar-inspired-artwork-unveiled/
I was supposed to speak about the economic dimensions of design (including industrial design) at http://birmingham-made-me.org/ this week, but had to withdraw for personal reasons. Really bummed!


An amazingly consistently thoughtful inversions of Jan Kriwol: http://wordlesstech.com/2013/05/14/unique-universe-by-innovative-polish/

A simple trick of inverting the focal point to create a juxtaposition between expectation and realization. Pure orthogonality works.


Is it art? Well, I am not sure. But it has meaning. It has its own language, its own semiotics, its own passions, beliefs etc. So is it art?
http://likes.com/misc/prison-tattoos-and-their-secret-meanings
I am not sure. But I do recall how much amazement I experienced when I first time looked at prison tattoos from the point of view of attempting to understand them. For years, seeing them on beaches around the USSR, I grew up on a steady diet of rejecting these expressions of personal lives as being vulgar, invalid, something to be permanently kept below my domain (all consisten positions of the Russian intelligentsia's conservativism in the face of both reality and modernity). And then, years later, there I was in a UCLA classroom of Professor Mascaro, reading about Russian prison tattoos and writing an essay on the link between liner logic and their compositions... Still remember that! And the strangely correlated across time and space St Pat's day when myself and Professor Mascaro were the only two people in a class, not wearing green... Many years fast forward, here I am in my Dublin kitchen posting about prison tattoos, remembering Professor Mascaro and wondering... is this art?..


A.A. Gill is a form of narrative that is art. And here he is with a thesis of America the Marvelous http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2013/07/america-with-love-aa-gill-excerpt?mbid=social_twitter
Worth a read, as always.


I wrote before about light art, Dan Flavin (here) in particular. Here's James Turrell - another master of the medium - and he is http://www.guggenheim.org/new-york/exhibitions/on-view/james-turrell

Back in 1999 myself and MrsG had a joint entry at a group exhibition in Baltimore, using light as part of installation. The tile was Mutatis Mutandis, if I recall correctly, and it lived for about 5 minutes, subsequently knocking out lights in the entire multistory building in downtown Baltimore... the party went on... Turrell's work is striking enough to knock daylights out of your senses of space and dimension. If in NYC - a must see!

Guggenheim's show completes an unprecedented sequence of installations undertaken by Turrell that started with LA's LACMA, followed by Houston's MFA within a month and then onto NYC to Guggenheim - all across the impossible span of just 3 months. Impossible, because the entire installation of this retrospective requires rebuilding rooms, halls, spaces spanning 92,000 sq feet.

Here's an image from Houston:

Let me end this post on accidental art http://www.businessinsider.com/14-pictures-of-our-crowded-world-2013-6
The first image is fantastic. Absolutely, Gursky-like (link). As is number 9 and number 12 and 13. And number 7 is Missoni-like or better yet Morris Louis in gamma and linearity of the core movements. Yes, yes, Michael Wolf deals with density, especially in his Hong Kong series... that, perhaps, next week?

End of this post... stay tuned for the second part tomorrow and read...